OPINION: Trump’s win spells crisis for Europe, but it could save the EU

The return of Donald Trump to the White House may be catastrophic for US democracy. It could be even more destructive for Europe, writes John Lichfield.

Make America Great Again version 2.0 is upon us.
If Trump is to be believed, he intends to “end the Ukraine war in days” (ie abandon Kyiv to its Russian aggressors). He intends to weaken America’s security guarantee to Nato countries (which implies the end of the Atlantic alliance).
He intends to slap tariffs of at least 10 percent on all European exports (and place even higher duties on Chinese exports which may then flood into the EU market).
Listen to John and the team at The Local France talking about the Trump victory in the latest Talking France podcast – listen here or on the link below

Trumpworld is a world without international rules or commitments. It is diplomacy by gangsterism

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In Trumpworld, the United States should have the right to pollute the planet as it pleases; to suck up international capital to fund its monstrous debt; and to damage and insult its friends while playing soft-ball with evil dictators.
Before MAGA version 1.0, Europeans could tell themselves that Trump’s rhetoric wouldn’t survive contact with reality. There would be grown-up conservatives within his administration to police him. He was a deal-maker. He would make deals.
Up to a point, that is what did happen. But almost all the “grown-up conservatives” who worked with Trump in 2017-2020 now refuse to work with him. One of them, his former Chief of Staff John Kelly, says that Trump can accurately be described as a “fascist” and that he intends to rule, second time around, as a dictator.

The US Senate and most likely the House of Representatives will be under Republican control. The Republican Party has sold its soul for power and will be under the control of Trump. Ditto, the US Supreme Court.
Checks and balances? The United States constitution and its democracy are about to be subjected to their greatest crash test since the American Civil War 160 years ago.
But so is Nato. And so is the European Union.
There was never a good time for Trump to return. But seen from the European side of the Atlantic, his victory in Tuesday’s presidential election could not have come at a worse time.
The EU is divided about its own future. Both of its largest and most influential countries, Germany and France, are struggling economically and enfeebled politically. Their “alliance” has become a talking shop which fails to solve their own quarrels, let alone impose direction on the EU-27.
European public opinion remains broadly pro-Ukraine but is bored with the war.

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The far right is rising in almost all EU countries and will be emboldened by Trump’s victory, built partly on lies about immigrants. Trumponomics could plunge the world, and Europe, into a recession before it has properly recovered from the twin shocks of Covid and the Ukraine war.
The EU could face trade wars with both China and the US in the next couple of years as what remains of the world trading rules fall apart.
It is possible, therefore, to argue that Donald Trump might, paradoxically, be the saviour of the EU. Almost all the greatest European achievements have been forged in crisis.
French President Emmanuel Macron has been pleading with the other EU countries for seven years to accept that they must grasp their own destiny. They can no longer rely on Washington for their security. They will not survive as an industrial power unless they work together to invest in new technologies and defend themselves against Chinese, and yes American, commercial aggression.
Trump’s second coming means that Macron has, in effect, “won” that argument. But he is now a spent-force in France and has lost much of his political capital in Europe. The approaching crisis may, or may not, reinvigorate him.
Germany is also in the political and economic doldrums. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s left-green-liberal coalition is falling apart. The far right AFD is rising.

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Three of the four components of the “German model” have failed. There is no more cheap gas from Russia. China is no longer buying German hardware. The US security guarantee to Europe may soon end.
Only the fourth element – the EU and the European single market – remain. But Scholz’s Germany – and maybe all Germany – rejects most of Macron’s vision of a “sovereign” Europe.
Hundreds of billions of Euros of EU-guaranteed debt to rebuild European industry and defence capability? No thanks, that’s the French way, not the Germany way. Look where debt has got the French.
Creating a European defence force within Nato and maybe to replace Nato? Germany and the east European EU countries hate the idea. They want to cling on to nurse for fear of something worse – even now that nurse is wearing a red MAGA baseball cap.
Retaliate as one EU against American and Chinese trade protectionism? Or try to make separate deals?.
Trump will force the Europeans to confront all these issues in the next couple of years. Crisis may bring creativity and compromise. It has in the past.
But the EU needs its Franco-German “motor” or alliance to lead the way. And France and Germany are both weakened and pulling in opposite directions.

#Opinion and Analysis
#Politics
#John Lichfield
#Breaking

Comments (17)

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Gary

2024/11/13 01:38

This is pathetic. If I read another article like this I’ll be cancelling my subscription.

Marek

2024/11/11 20:09

You could have summarized this terrible article with a simple crying emoji

John

2024/11/11 13:16

Why wasn’t my comment published? Are there hundreds of comments here, making the moderating task difficult? I have spent time and effort in order to contribute to this platform, it’s not as if X doesn’t exist for a true discussion.

Ben McPartland, Editor, The Local Europe

2024/11/11 15:15

Hi. I can’t see a previous comment from this email address, so I’m not sure why. Perhaps it didn’t save.

Frances Charteris

2024/11/11 11:31

@Frank G. below: as a brit as well as a tax paying citizen of USA, I am grateful for your comment. It was a relief to read it. Disturbed but not surprised to read the posts, I was unable to find words to respond to m a g a (I refuse to capitalise) perspective here in France, a country that is committed to its citizens needs for medical care, education, recreation and has made abortion a constitutional right (thank you M. Macron). And yes, we need a strong EU.

Frank Galloro

2024/11/11 00:36

The maga commenters below are in no way representative of the American electorate as a whole. Donald Trump represents a clear and present danger to world wide security. The EU must stand strong in the face of tyranny.

David

2024/11/10 23:17

We need the EU to stand strong after 1/2 of our ignorant electorate chose an authoritarian lunatic.

Colin

2024/11/10 06:18

Trump winning is great news….

Mike

2024/11/08 17:14

The writer and other comments clearly only go by what they hear on the news. Trump was President for 4 years, and it worked out pretty good for the US and the rest of the world. If EU is mad that they have to pay their NATO bill, suck it up. Those of us who live in the US have had to endure the most incompetent administration in my lifetime, and I’m 60. You can complain all you want, but you will be happily cashing your checks, living a better life of prosperity and peace while you do.

European living in Norway

2024/11/08 09:31

Have I read below he is the protector of democracy?? Only if he wins, obviously. This is laughable.

Criticism is not about his economic policy, Americans have of course the right to choose the economic model they consider best for themself (it will be good mostly for billionaires like him, not for the average voter though), but it is sad that most Americans want a leader which is a compulsive liar, convicted felon and clearly a racist and misogynist person. Great role model.

Jase

2024/11/08 09:10

Anna,
Seriously, where have you been the last 4 years?!!
Biden Administration Destroyed America, it’s people and actively puports it’s brainwashed, and continually continues war.

Ted

2024/11/08 07:46

I read this article and realize it is strictly opinion. However, it is completely out-of-touch with reality of what a Trump victory means on the world scale. While you say this is a bad time for this kind of leader from the U.S., can you imagine what the alternative would’ve been? It is laughable. As misguided this article is, I will defend your right to speak your mind. Unlike the other side of the aisle, I welcome all opinions.

Anna Separanza.

2024/11/07 22:39

“Diplomacy by gangsterism”. Well said. I despair for the people of Ukraine, and for the planet. Trump’s victory is a triumph for the politics of fear, suspicion and selfishness.

Bernard Rethore

2024/11/07 12:20

This is an incredibly biased and ill informed article attacking President Trump!

Michael

2024/11/07 11:20

It’s time for Europe to pay for their own defense and stop relying on the American taxpayer. NATO is a throw back to when Europe was weak and rebuilding. That is no longer the case. It will be a bitter pill for Europeans to swallow but many of their social programs – decades old – will have to be eliminated or reduced to pay for their own military force. American taxpayers should not be required to fund the defense of Europe. America has its own set of problems that need to be addressed first.

Mom of Expat Living in Bucks County PA

2024/11/06 21:03

This opinion piece should be taken as pure, uninformed, opinion. Donald Trump is the protector of democracy, and with his team, he will downsize government, improve efficiency/spending, create jobs in the US in manufacturing, reduce reliance on strategic imports, reduce cost of fuels, and let innovation thrive in the USA. He will follow-the-money, as he did with his first presidency, to keep Iran in check and end conflicts in our world.

David Archer

2024/11/06 19:43

Wow, John Lichfield certainly has an extreme left wing view. I think he’s way out of touch with the American people. In fairness, I’d suggest that you run a story that gives the opposite point of view. Obviously, the majority of the American people don’t agree with Mr. Lichfield’s opinion. I think the coming year will prove him totally wrong and Germany’s position with the US will be as strong as ever.

Finn

2024/11/06 19:02

Excellent commentary!

See Also

Trumpworld is a world without international rules or commitments. It is diplomacy by gangsterism
In Trumpworld, the United States should have the right to pollute the planet as it pleases; to suck up international capital to fund its monstrous debt; and to damage and insult its friends while playing soft-ball with evil dictators.
Before MAGA version 1.0, Europeans could tell themselves that Trump’s rhetoric wouldn’t survive contact with reality. There would be grown-up conservatives within his administration to police him. He was a deal-maker. He would make deals.
Up to a point, that is what did happen. But almost all the “grown-up conservatives” who worked with Trump in 2017-2020 now refuse to work with him. One of them, his former Chief of Staff John Kelly, says that Trump can accurately be described as a “fascist” and that he intends to rule, second time around, as a dictator.
The US Senate and most likely the House of Representatives will be under Republican control. The Republican Party has sold its soul for power and will be under the control of Trump. Ditto, the US Supreme Court.
Checks and balances? The United States constitution and its democracy are about to be subjected to their greatest crash test since the American Civil War 160 years ago.
But so is Nato. And so is the European Union.
There was never a good time for Trump to return. But seen from the European side of the Atlantic, his victory in Tuesday’s presidential election could not have come at a worse time.
The EU is divided about its own future. Both of its largest and most influential countries, Germany and France, are struggling economically and enfeebled politically. Their “alliance” has become a talking shop which fails to solve their own quarrels, let alone impose direction on the EU-27.
European public opinion remains broadly pro-Ukraine but is bored with the war.
The far right is rising in almost all EU countries and will be emboldened by Trump’s victory, built partly on lies about immigrants. Trumponomics could plunge the world, and Europe, into a recession before it has properly recovered from the twin shocks of Covid and the Ukraine war.
The EU could face trade wars with both China and the US in the next couple of years as what remains of the world trading rules fall apart.
It is possible, therefore, to argue that Donald Trump might, paradoxically, be the saviour of the EU. Almost all the greatest European achievements have been forged in crisis.
French President Emmanuel Macron has been pleading with the other EU countries for seven years to accept that they must grasp their own destiny. They can no longer rely on Washington for their security. They will not survive as an industrial power unless they work together to invest in new technologies and defend themselves against Chinese, and yes American, commercial aggression.
Trump’s second coming means that Macron has, in effect, “won” that argument. But he is now a spent-force in France and has lost much of his political capital in Europe. The approaching crisis may, or may not, reinvigorate him.
Germany is also in the political and economic doldrums. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s left-green-liberal coalition is falling apart. The far right AFD is rising.
Three of the four components of the “German model” have failed. There is no more cheap gas from Russia. China is no longer buying German hardware. The US security guarantee to Europe may soon end.
Only the fourth element – the EU and the European single market – remain. But Scholz’s Germany – and maybe all Germany – rejects most of Macron’s vision of a “sovereign” Europe.
Hundreds of billions of Euros of EU-guaranteed debt to rebuild European industry and defence capability? No thanks, that’s the French way, not the Germany way. Look where debt has got the French.
Creating a European defence force within Nato and maybe to replace Nato? Germany and the east European EU countries hate the idea. They want to cling on to nurse for fear of something worse – even now that nurse is wearing a red MAGA baseball cap.
Retaliate as one EU against American and Chinese trade protectionism? Or try to make separate deals?.
Trump will force the Europeans to confront all these issues in the next couple of years. Crisis may bring creativity and compromise. It has in the past.
But the EU needs its Franco-German “motor” or alliance to lead the way. And France and Germany are both weakened and pulling in opposite directions.

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